Отправил: OLDMAN , Ср , 29 Авг 2001 в 03:06 MSK
Одно из любопытных мнений, высказанных на форуме Global-View
Dallas B 22:43 GMT August 28, 2001
Doom and Gloom scenario develops and we wonder why????
1) Bad consumer # today. Go figure.
2) Everyone in US expecting a recovery
3) Fed keeps cutting rates. Nothing has changed. $ has only begun the fall. What did Alan expect? He cut like a maniac in 1999 for the Y2k debacle that never occured. Then he raised like he was ressurecting the dead for fear of the phantom inflater which never showed its face - until recently in Oil prices. Now he cuts again like a thouroughbred into the track turf, yet he's too slow on the 3rd lap.
4) GDP revision will be worse than expected imo.
5) Massive layoffs continue. Look at Gateway today. Everyday it's another company. And the "so-called" recovery supposedly looms nearby.
6) Famed US investor, Warren Buffet, is mentioned in current Business Week magazine and suggests that US economy is due for 8 years of stagnation. And he was the guy the stuck his nose into the air at dotcoms and tech stocks. Seems savvy to me.
7) Bush/O'Neil combo seem reticent to talk the $ up OR down. They don't know what to do except issue tax rebate checks which will largely be saved as opposed to spent as the consumer feels the pinch. My wife, however, got our $600 and we bought tickets to Vegas and the Venetian. SMILES
8) NAPM wants weaker $ and probably gets more. Multinational corps need lower $ to improve profits. They'll get it.
9) US corporate profits shrinking. Why would $ be safe haven much less equities???
10) Psychologically US investors think "buying the dip" will work again. Yet the history of manias, boom-bust cycles does not show immediate virtuous returns of yesteryear valuations like ATHM at 5000 PE. (current stock price 39 cents, massive debt, and no profits, but one HECK of a service that I personally use and love)
In summary I see little reason for $ strength. September and October are 2 months in every year, but Wall Street hates them. They are black months.
Anyways I don't post much really, but wanted to express my thoughts on the state of things as I see them. If too pessimistic please accept my deepest apologies. I want everyone to succeed and make many dollars which will inevtiably be worth less in due time. I suppose such depreciation is best accomplished this way than thru the phantom.
Good Trades to all