Отправил: OLDMAN , Ср , 29 Авг 2001 в 13:52 MSK
в ответ на: Кто захочет, тот поймет, которое отправил OLDMAN Ср , 29 Авг 2001 в 03:06 MSK:
Ldn 09:14 GMT August 29, 2001
EMU BBK president and ECB council member Welteke leaves the options open as regards the timing of an ECB rate cut. In his speech (at a 50yr anniversary of the Investitionsbank Hesse in Frankfurt) he stresses on the one hand the fact that for the first time since the oil crisis in the seventies there is a largely synchronized downswing in the three main economic areas of the world (US, Japan, Europe). For the U.S. he reckons with an improvement in the autumn at the earliest, for Japan he sees little hope from a cyclical perspective in the foreseable future (as structural problems are only beginning to be tackled), while for Euroland and Germany he paints a mixed picture (H1 01 consumption not so bad after all, but investment weak, while some leading indicators lend cautious hope). On Euroland inflation Welteke is quite optimistic, stressing an ongoing downward tendency and the importance of special factors in H1 01, with the ECB being successful (he says) in containing second round effects. He also points to soft latest PPI and raw material prices. Unlike BBK's Kuehbacher this morning, he rather plays down recent M3 acceleration as distorted by capital market uncertainty and a flat yield curve. All this in mind, he does conclude this part of the speech by reminding his listeners that the ECB, unlike the Fed, does not have the task of steering the economic cycle, and that secondly the possibilities of cyclical fine-tuning are being overestimated while the lags of monetary and fiscal policy impulses are being underestimated. In sum, Welteke has said nothing to prevent an easing tomorrow, but one cannot say either that he has prepared the ground for such a move being timed for Aug 30th. S&P MMS maintain that a move tomorrow by 25bp has a chance of 75%, and that otherwise Sep 13th is a prime candidate.