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Отправил: Plain , Вс , 22 Июля 2001 в 22:37 MSK

в ответ на: JPY/USD & GBP/USD, которое отправил //\\ Сб , 21 Июля 2001 в 05:24 MSK:

Читая различные прогнозы, многие вдруг начали указывать на таргет для движения вниз 121.50 и даже 118 с копейками. Этому они находят следующее объяснение - долларйена должна начать рости со второй половины 3 квартала и особенно осенью, когда опять увеличится спрос на доллар, сечас же вроде такой потребности не возникает. Может это и не затрагивает напрямую обсуждение волнового анализа, однако не думаю, что рассмотрение рыночной ситуации с различных позиций ухудшит воспряитие рынка. Даже интереснее сочетать различные подходы, не рафинируя свой взгляд в рамках одного метода анализа. Например, коррекция может остановиться как и на 50%, так и на 61.8%, здесь еще временной фактор важен.
По опросам, долларйена все-же смотрит вверх, однако, когда она туда повернет? G-7 прошло... Вроде тихо пока... Люди начинают искать свежую инфу, я вот с радостью прочитал вот эту статью (хотя не надо включать эмоции в работу, понимаю) может, думаю, такие заявления и формируют настроения на рынке, хотя кто их знает, настроение - такая штука...

Global Currencies

07/20 16:43
Yen Rally to One-Month High Is Probably Over: Currency Outlook
By Geraldine Ryerson-Cruz

New York, July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Citibank, which last month recommended investors stop selling yen for dollars, says it's a good time to bet against the Japanese currency again.

The yen's climb to a one-month high is about to end as a weak Japanese economy and falling stocks undermine demand for the currency, said the bank, which handles the largest share of the $1.1 trillion traded daily in the foreign-exchange market.

``Over the next few weeks we'll hear a drumbeat of information that signals further weakness in Japan,'' said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Citibank. The bank has seen ``net selling of Japanese equities again from our North American client base,'' while Japanese investors have renewed purchases of dollars, he said.

Japan's currency rose for a fourth day, to its highest level since June 20 at 122.90 yen per dollar, from 124.94 last Friday. The yen has strengthened 1.5 percent since June 28, when Citibank recommended investors hold off from selling the currency. It rose to 107.18 per euro today from 107.44 yesterday in New York. The dollar slid 2 percent, to 87.15 cents per euro.

Still, the yen has lost almost 7 percent of its value against the dollar this year as many foreign investors pulled money out of the country on concern Japan is falling back into recession. The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index has declined 14 percent so far this year and fell to a four-month low of 11,8478 on Wednesday.

Foreigners were net sellers of Japanese stocks in five of the seven weeks ended July 13, the Tokyo Stock Exchange said.

Japanese Reports

Traders now await release of reports on June consumer prices and industrial production, which declined or stayed flat in three of the past four months.

A separate report will likely show sales at Japan's large retailers fell 2.5 percent in June from last year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. That would be the 37th straight monthly drop. Consumer spending accounts for about 60 percent of the economy.

``All this is pointing to further deterioration in Japan's economy and that's not supportive for the yen,'' said Ku Shin, director of Asian analysis for Banc One Capital Markets in Chicago. ``Given all those issues, I expect the yen will fall to the 125 (per dollar) level; it's a more likely scenario than rising above 123.''

Gross domestic product shrank 0.2 percent in Japan during the first three months of 2001 compared with the previous quarter. It probably contracted by the same amount again from April to June, putting the world's second-biggest economy back in recession just two years after its last one ended, economists said.

Koizumi Plan

Optimism for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's proposals to reignite the economy won't likely bolster the currency in coming weeks, analysts said. Koizumi told other leaders of the Group of Seven industrialized nations at a meeting in Genoa, Italy, today that his economic initiatives should go ahead right away.

Even so, analysts said they will have to wait until after Japan's Upper House elections on July 29 to gauge how much domestic political support his plans have. Koizumi's proposals include curbing government spending and new bond sales, and helping banks write off bad loans, which could trigger more bankruptcies.

``Japanese reforms, generally speaking, mean a weaker yen,'' said Benjamin Strauss, a trader at Bank Julius Baer. ``They have a big bullet to bite, because there will be further contraction in Japan's economy before any recovery is seen.''

This week, the dollar slumped against 11 major currencies, including the yen and the euro, on speculation the government may address concerns that the dollar's relative strength against other major currencies this year is straining the economy.

G-7 Meeting

Even with this week's decline, the U.S. currency remains close to a 15-year high reached July 5 against currencies of the U.S.'s major trading partners. That strength prompted U.S. manufacturer and labor groups to complain it is making exports less competitive and to ask the Bush administration to favor a weaker currency.

Traders sold dollars on talk that leaders of the Group of Seven industrialized nations and Russia will express concern about the U.S. currency's strength at this weekend's meeting. The currency was also sold after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Wednesday that a U.S. recovery won't come until the end of the year.

``That gave the yen gains throughout this week,'' said Banc One's Ku Shin. ``After the G-7 meeting, I expect the dollar will recover against the yen'' as investors turn their attention back toward Japan's faltering economy.

President George W. Bush yesterday said he'll let the markets sort out the dollar's value, and Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill reiterated that the U.S. hasn't changed its strong-dollar policy.

``The dollar is probably the currency to own going into next week, and with signs the yen may weaken this combines into a recommendation to go short on yen against the dollar,'' said Citibank's Sinche.
(Source: Bloomberg News)

P.S. Прошу прощения у FXO, что не в тему, однако ко времени :-)))


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